Researchers: BSW unlikely to co-govern in three countries

According to political researcher Jan Philipp Thomeczek, the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition (BSW) is unlikely to form a coalition government in all three states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. "It will work in at least one federal state, but probably not in all three," the research associate at the University of Potsdam told the German Press Agency. He sees two main factors for this: the political starting position in the states and the different BSW state leaders.

Scientist sees advantage for Brandenburg

The BSW expert sees an advantage for the formation of a government in Brandenburg. "In Brandenburg, only two partners are needed - as we know from research, the fewer potential coalition partners there are, the faster the government can be formed," said Thomeczek. In Thuringia, the so-called Brombeer coalition of CDU, SPD and BSW would not have a majority and might need the Left Party, which would not "nod off" everything either.

In the researcher's view, another factor is a certain inequality between the state leaders. The Thuringian BSW co-chair Katja Wolf has already publicly diverged from the federal BSW chair Sahra Wagenknecht several times.

Expert: Pragmatic course or word of power from Berlin

"On the one hand, a pragmatic course could make a governing coalition easier; on the other hand, the federal leadership could also dismiss a state leader if things get "too colorful" for them," said Thomeczek.

In Brandenburg, BSW state leader Robert Crumbach was a member of the SPD for 40 years, which could make the talks easier. "In addition, the SPD there is somewhat more conservative, which means it is closer to the BSW."

Different status in the three states

After five exploratory talks, a decision on coalition negotiations could be approaching in Brandenburg. In Saxony and Thuringia, so-called blackberry coalitions of CDU, BSW and SPD are being discussed.

In Saxony, the exploratory talks were interrupted for the time being because MPs from the BSW parliamentary group also agreed to a motion by the AfD for a coronavirus investigation committee in the state parliament. In Thuringia, the project is on the brink: the search for a compromise on peace policy demands, which Wagenknecht made a prerequisite for the start of coalition negotiations, has so far been unsuccessful.