Shortly before the state elections, the ZDF Politbarometer sees the AfD as the strongest force in Thuringia - in Saxony, the CDU can expect to win the election. This is the result of the new survey by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen published on "heute journal". New state parliaments will be elected in both federal states on Sunday.
In Thuringia, the AfD is at 29% in the poll and thus clearly in first place ahead of the CDU with 23% and the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance with 18%. The Left Party, which has Bodo Ramelow as Prime Minister in the federal state, stands at 13%. The SPD could receive 6 percent, while the Greens could miss out on a place in the state parliament with 4 percent. The other parties would receive a total of 7 percent, with no party achieving at least three percent.
"This means that a coalition of CDU, BSW and SPD would currently have a narrow majority, but other coalitions that have not been ruled out would not," it said. In purely mathematical terms, coalitions of AfD and CDU and AfD and BSW would have a majority, but so would a coalition of CDU, BSW and Linke. However, such options were ruled out by either the CDU or the BSW. However, according to the survey, 29% of respondents are not yet sure who and whether they want to vote for.
CDU maintains lead over AfD in Saxony
In Saxony, the CDU, which has Michael Kretschmer as head of government, is well ahead of the AfD with 33%. According to the survey, the Left Party would not be represented in the state parliament with 4 percent - the Greens and the SPD would each receive 6 percent. The BSW stands at 12% in the survey. The other parties together received 9 percent - including no party that would achieve at least 3 percent.
"In addition to the continuation of the government of CDU, Greens and SPD, there would also be an equally narrow majority for an alliance of CDU and BSW," the pollsters said. A coalition between the CDU and AfD would also be sufficient, but this has been ruled out by the CDU. But even in Saxony, 24% of respondents are not yet sure who or whether they want to vote for.
The values for the individual parties have hardly changed since the political barometer on August 23 - although the new survey was conducted after the suspected Islamist attack in Solingen. On Friday evening, an attacker killed three people with a knife at a town festival and injured eight others. The suspected perpetrator is 26-year-old Syrian Issa Al H., who is in custody in Düsseldorf.
Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not a forecast of the election outcome.
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