Survey: chances of AfD coming first in state elections

A new poll shows that the AfD has a chance of becoming the strongest force in Thuringia and Saxony. In Saxony, the CDU led by head of government Michael Kretschmer is still ahead of the AfD with 33 percent, according to a survey conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the ZDF Politbarometer. Compared to a survey published by the same institute on August 9, the CDU would now be one percentage point weaker. Infratest-dimap, on the other hand, put the CDU at 31 percent in a survey published on Thursday.

In Thuringia, the AfD led by right-winger Björn Höcke also comes in at 30 percent and is in first place there. A new state parliament will be elected in both federal states on September 1. In both states, the AfD is classified by the state constitution protection offices as a confirmed right-wing extremist party.

Left party below five percent in Saxony

According to the survey, the new party Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht would come third in Saxony with eleven percent - ahead of the SPD and Greens, which have seven and six percent respectively. According to the survey, the Left Party would no longer be represented in the Saxon state parliament with four percent.

Hardly any coalition possibilities in Thuringia

According to the survey figures, forming a government in Thuringia would be complicated. The current alliance of Left Party Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow would have no chance of gaining a majority in parliament. Ramelow's Left Party is only in fourth place with 14%. In the 2019 state elections, it was still the strongest force in the state - with 31%.

The BSW, which came third in the Politbarometer with 17%, is also likely to be the reason for the fall. The CDU is in second place with 23%. As no other party wants to work with the AfD, CDU lead candidate Mario Voigt could claim the post of Minister President for himself if his CDU finishes ahead of the BSW. However, a politically feasible majority would only emerge in an alliance of CDU, BSW and SPD. Such a liaison is considered delicate in terms of content.

Greens could be kicked out of parliament in Thuringia

The SPD is dangerously close to the five percent threshold in the Thuringia poll with six percent. With four percent, the Greens would no longer make it into the state parliament. The FDP, with its leading candidate and former short-term Minister President Thomas Kemmerich, would also not be in the new parliament - and is classified in the poll under Others.

Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The institute states a statistical margin of error of a good three percentage points with a share value of 40%. In principle, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a forecast of the election outcome.