Competition from the Free Saxons prevents AfD election victory in Saxony

According to political scientist Tom Thieme, competition from the far-right Free Saxons has prevented an AfD election victory in Saxony. The AfD received 30.6 percent of the vote on Sunday, while the Free Saxons received 2.2 percent. "If you add up both results, this corresponds exactly to the 32.8 percent that the AfD achieved in Thuringia, where there was no such competition from the far right," Thieme told the German Press Agency.

The AfD feels like a winner because it was the only one of the state parliament parties to increase its result. "However, it failed to achieve its goals of winning the election and a blocking minority - a third of the seats."

According to Thieme, who teaches at the Saxon Police University, the paradoxical situation on election night was that all parties were apparently able to live with the result, although they all had just as much reason to be dissatisfied.

"The CDU won the election as the party with the most votes, but lost first place in most direct mandates and achieved the worst result in its history in Saxony," explained Thieme. The SPD was once again below its worst election result of 2019 and should nevertheless be satisfied with the result, as some polls before the election had predicted that it would fail to reach the five percent hurdle.

Thieme assumes that the CDU, BSW and SPD will form a government. "It should be easier for the CDU than with the Greens due to some fundamental similarities - limiting immigration, demands for diplomacy in the Ukraine war, rejection of gender and identity politics."

It remains to be seen whether the BSW is capable of governing due to the inexperience of its MPs. The new government constellation is likely to be particularly uncomfortable for the SPD, said Thieme. Some overlaps with the BSW in social and education policy would be offset by major political and cultural differences, particularly in terms of social policy. "While the SPD was in some ways between the CDU/CSU and the Greens in the previous Kenya government, it is now more likely to find itself on the fringes of the three-party alliance."