Decision days: Will the BSW really soon be part of the government?

Important decisions are pending in the formation of governments in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. In all three states, the CDU and SPD are looking for coalitions without the AfD - in all three states, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance plays the decisive role. Will the CDU, SPD and BSW now dare to take the next step? Will the "blackberry coalitions" really come to fruition this fall?

Party founder Sahra Wagenknecht is still keeping a low profile. Sometimes she sounds more confident, sometimes she takes jabs at potential partners. For example, Wagenknecht recently said on Deutschlandfunk radio that after the September elections she still had the feeling that the CDU and SPD had understood the results. Now she had the impression that the parties wanted to carry on as before. However, around half of the people in the East had "voted for change".

The CDU and SPD must move, is Wagenknecht's message. Otherwise, the BSW will simply go into opposition.

Their demands are similar in all countries. For the BSW, it's about additional teachers, dealing with the coronavirus and curbing migration. Above all, however, Wagenknecht wants coalition agreements to include the goal of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and a rejection of the deployment of US medium-range missiles. This is a high hurdle for the CDU and SPD in all three countries. Nevertheless, the starting position is different.

In Saxony, you have to get to know each other first

Coalition negotiations are the method of choice in a parliamentary democracy. Exploratory talks are sometimes held beforehand. In Saxony, however, things were approached even more cautiously after the state elections on September 1: The potential partners CDU, BSW and SPD initially arranged "introductory talks". After several rounds, the party committees are now to decide on an exploratory talks.

As things stand, this should not take too long, as negotiators were already working on papers during the introductory phase, according to reports. Nevertheless, there are still strong reservations within the CDU about the BSW. Former CDU officials from the Leipzig area had campaigned for a dialog with the AfD, which came second in Saxony, just behind the CDU. There are also calls for a minority government.

Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) thinks nothing of it. He wants the pact with the BSW and the SPD. Together with CDU state leader Mario Voigt from Thuringia and Brandenburg's Minister President Dietmar Woidke (SPD), Kretschmer signaled concessions to Wagenknecht's foreign policy demands in the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" newspaper.

In Thuringia, it's all about coalition negotiations

Thuringia is officially one step ahead of its neighbouring state. Here, the CDU, BSW and SPD have already concluded their exploratory talks and drawn up a paper. On this basis, committees of the three parties are to decide on coalition negotiations at the end of this week.

According to the party leaders, the talks, which covered all important policy areas from finance, the economy and education to migration, were quite trusting and serious. But there were also disagreements. The SPD criticized the "FAZ" article, which Voigt had co-sponsored as minister president-to-be. Crisis meetings had to calm the waters.

In Erfurt, a coalition with the new party led by BSW state leader Katja Wolf would not just be a political experiment. With 44 out of 88 seats in the state parliament, it would also not have its own majority. The background to this is that the AfD became the strongest party in Germany for the first time in the state elections, finishing well ahead of the CDU. Should the Brombeer partners come together, they would need additional votes from the left to push through resolutions without the AfD.

In Brandenburg, they are perhaps closer to their goal

The situation in the Potsdam state parliament is somewhat simpler. Prime Minister Woidke's SPD would have a majority with the BSW. It would therefore not be a blackberry coalition, but a red-purple one. Wagenknecht says that this two-party constellation might be a little easier compared to Saxony or Thuringia. BSW state leader Robert Crumbach was with the SPD for decades before switching. This means that he knows his way around, but must also be careful to distinguish himself and maintain his own profile.

In Brandenburg, too, exploratory talks have been underway for some time. The next step here would also be a decision on coalition negotiations. What is striking: So far, almost only positive assessments have been leaked. The parties have agreed not to disclose any details. However, Minister President Woidke said that the talks had been promising so far. BSW state head Crumbach spoke of "good talks" so far. But sometimes they are difficult.

Will it work out?

The elephant in the room is the BSW's foreign policy demands. SPD leader Woidke is in favor of military support for Ukraine - which contradicts Wagenknecht's demands. CDU federal leader Friedrich Merz is also very annoyed by this. "Ms. Wagenknecht has to accept that there are decisions that are irrevocable," Merz said recently. These are the commitment to the West and NATO membership. Wagenknecht reacted piqued to this and complained that Merz was dictating to his negotiators at state level.

However, Wagenknecht is also accused of calling the shots when it comes to forming a government in the three states. She will not decide alone, "but it is also important to me how this is seen in the country", she said this week. Each state will be weighed up individually. The head of Saxony's BSW, Sabine Zimmermann, emphasized that there was no dedicated line to Berlin, nor was Wagenknecht's husband Oskar Lafontaine sitting in the background. Negotiations are autonomous, there is no veto right for Wagenknecht: "I don't see why."