Difficult government formation after state elections in Saxony

After the latest election results, Dresden political scientist Hans Vorländer predicts a difficult government formation after the state elections in Saxony on September 1. The background to this is the strong performance of the AfD in the European elections on Sunday. The AfD left the CDU behind by 10 percentage points. The CDU/CSU's two coalition partners in the state - the Greens and the SPD - only achieved 5.9% and 6.9% respectively. The Sahra Wagenknecht coalition (BSW), on the other hand, achieved 12.6 percent from a standing start.

According to the current result, it cannot be assumed that the Kenya coalition will simply be able to achieve a majority in the Free State, Vorländer told the German Press Agency on Monday. "It will depend on the BSW." One even has to consider the possibility that only the AfD, the CDU and the BSW enter the state parliament, he said. "Then the CDU will have a big problem".

At the same time, Vorländer is convinced that the state election will come down more to the person of Minister President Michael Kretschmer (CDU), who has good personal ratings in the polls. "It will depend on whether he manages to pull the CDU ahead of the AfD once again." After the current result, however, there are doubts. "The AfD is a force in Saxony. It is strongly rooted and has once again asserted itself in this election. This is especially true for eastern Saxony."

Vorländer spoke of a clear result. There were bright spots for the CDU in western Saxony in the district of Zwickau and in Leipzig. "Eastern Saxony is largely in the hands of the AfD." The party researcher did not want to speculate on whether such a result for the CDU in the state election could mean the end for Kretschmer. The CDU does not really have any personnel alternatives at hand. "But surprises are always possible if the CDU is completely desperate."

For the period up to the state elections, Vorländer now sees the parties as facing the following task: "They have to sharpen their focus in terms of people and issues. And they must state very clearly what their visions and future projects for Saxony are." Otherwise, the coalition parties will have to hope that Germany becomes European soccer champion and wins a few medals at the Olympic Games, said Vorländer with a wink. If the weather is nice in summer and the Saxons return from their vacations in a good mood, that would also be good for the mood.