CDU leads in Saxony poll ahead of AfD and BSW

In a new poll for the state elections in Saxony on September 1, the CDU achieved the best approval rating with 34% and is 4 percentage points ahead of the AfD. According to the ZDF Politbarometer conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance ranks behind it with 11 percent.

The two current coalition partners of the CDU/CSU - the SPD and the Greens - would each receive 6% and would thus manage to re-enter the state parliament. With 4 percent, the Left Party is threatened with failing the five percent hurdle; they would have to hope to win two direct mandates in order to be represented in parliament in the future.

According to these poll results, the CDU could continue its current alliance. There would also be a narrow majority for a coalition of CDU and BSW. A government consisting of the CDU and AfD would also be mathematically possible, but the CDU/CSU has repeatedly ruled this out.

Kretschmer ahead of Urban

The CDU is also ahead in terms of preference for a future prime minister: 64% of respondents would prefer incumbent Michael Kretschmer to the AfD's leading candidate Jörg Urban. Only 14 percent are in favor of him. According to the survey, a third of respondents are not yet sure who or whether they want to vote for. 60 percent would like the CDU to lead the government again after the state elections.

Only 17 percent want a state government led by the AfD, while 10 percent would like to see the BSW at the head of government. 29% are in favor of AfD participation in the state government, while 60% consider this to be a bad thing. A good third (36%) would like to see the BSW in the next government, but the number of opponents of such a constellation is almost as high (35%).

In the last state election in 2019, the CDU was ahead of the AfD (27.5%) with 32.1%. It was followed by the Left Party (10.4 percent), ahead of the Greens (8.6 percent) and the SPD (7.7 percent). The FDP missed out on entering parliament for the second time in a row with 4.5%.

Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.