Dispute over population figures: some cities are worried about losing a lot of money

The exact number of inhabitants has a huge impact on the finances of local authorities. This is because so-called key allocations are based on it. But exactly how many people live in a city? There is a dispute about this in Saxony. In some cases, the figures that the cities draw from their population registers diverge widely from the data provided by the State Statistical Office. Do the courts even have to decide in the end?

Example Chemnitz: the city counted almost 251,700 inhabitants with their main residence at the end of 2024. The statisticians in Kamenz only come up with just over 245,000. For Leipzig, there is even a gap of around 21,800 inhabitants, as the city informed us on request. Annaberg-Buchholz in the Ore Mountains has around 1,100 more people than the state office.

A lot of money is at stake for some cities

The municipalities are worried about losing a lot of money. "A lower population tends to lead to lower key allocations," says the city of Chemnitz. The exact amount depends on many factors - such as how the overall population in Saxony develops, but also the tax capacity. In Annaberg-Buchholz, there is talk of around 420 euros per capita. With the difference of 1,100 people, it would lose around 462,000 euros this year alone.

But how do the different figures come about? The state office refers to the 2022 census, a nationally standardized procedure in which the data is continuously checked for up-to-dateness and updated. "The census is a kind of inventory, so to speak, which checks how accurately the population registers reflect reality, as they can only reflect the population's registration behavior," it says. Differences could be due to people moving away - for example abroad - but not deregistering at their previous place of residence.

Census benefits the Free State - but not every city

According to the statisticians in Kamenz, the municipalities are informed of how many people are registered too much or too little in their registers. For legal reasons, however, no names are passed on. This means that the municipalities cannot use the information to correct their registers.

In the majority of municipalities, the difference is in the range of -2.5 to +2.5 percent, they said. In individual cases, however, there are much higher swings of between -8.4 and +6.2 percent.

In response to a dpa query, the Association of Towns and Municipalities pointed out that this is not just a problem in Saxony. The effects vary from municipality to municipality. Nationwide, the census for Saxony was even better than the average for the other federal states. As a result, the Free State's revenue in the federal-state fiscal equalization system has increased by around 150 million euros per year compared to previous expectations. Overall, the key allocations of the Saxon municipalities have even increased slightly as a result of the census. The Association of Towns and Municipalities (Städte- und Gemeindebund, SSG) states that a number of municipalities are therefore benefiting even with a declining population.

Court action? - How affected cities are now proceeding

Cities such as Leipzig, Chemnitz and Annaberg-Buchholz can object to the data from the state office or even take legal action, according to the SSG. Leipzig says that all possible reasons for deviations are currently being examined in detail. Further steps will depend on the outcome of this.

"We have considerable doubts about the accuracy of the census results and have therefore lodged an appeal against the assessment notice," said a spokesperson for the town of Annaberg-Buchholz. The first step is to work with Chemnitz and Leipzig to clarify the differences with the figures from the State Statistical Office. "The outcome will determine whether legal action will be taken."