According to an election researcher analysis, the CDU in Saxony owes its success in the state elections to its Minister President Michael Kretschmer and the expertise attributed to him. The CDU election result was "based on a mix of a strong lead candidate, expertise and the desire for CDU government leadership", writes Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The AfD and BSW were successful "without much of their own doing".
Pulling horse Kretschmer brings CDU electoral success
Kretschmer has lost some of his pulling power. However, his rating on a +5/-5 scale was a positive 1.7 (2019: 2.3). His AfD rival Jörg Urban, on the other hand, has a negative image with minus 1.1 (2019: minus 0.8). According to the election researchers, 72% of Saxons believe the Minister President is doing a good job. "Ultimately, 65% want Kretschmer as head of government, only 23% are in favor of Urban."
Election researchers see few qualities of their own in the AfD and BSW
"The AfD and BSW show few qualities of their own," according to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. In addition to the issues of refugees and Ukraine/Russia, both are benefiting from "record dissatisfaction with the traffic light system and deficits of the CDU/CSU opposition in the federal government". Especially in the AfD camp, there is also a high degree of distance to established politics in the Free State. Among all citizens, 54% see the AfD as a threat to democracy.
Left, Greens and BSW with only weak competence ratings
The AfD is said to have competence above all in the area of foreigners/asylum. The AfD is now ahead of the CDU in this area. According to the election analysis, the SPD scores well in the area of social justice. However, it remains weak in other party competencies, just like the Left, Greens and BSW. The CDU leads in the areas of education, the future and the economy. In the event of AfD participation in government, 51% fear negative consequences for Saxony as a business location.
Majority do not want AfD to take on government responsibility
The majority of Saxons reject AfD participation in the next state government. 57 percent of respondents would find AfD participation in government bad, only 37 percent would find it good and 4 percent would not care. Opinions are divided when it comes to the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW): 38 percent would find government participation good and 34 percent bad, while 20 percent would not care. "Given the choice of whether the CDU or the AfD should lead the next government, 64 percent of all Saxons would vote for the CDU and only 31 percent for the AfD," the election researchers write further.
More men than women vote for the AfD
According to the analysis, the AfD is voted for significantly more by men than by women. "The AfD is also extremely successful among all under 60-year-olds with lower school-leaving qualifications." The opposite is true for the CDU - it scores higher among women than men. The CDU is particularly strong among the over-60s. According to the analysis by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the CDU won 42% of this age group and only 15% of those under 30.
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